Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
